Friday, February 27, 2009

Celebrity Apprentice Odds...Because we love to gamble!


Full disclosure - I have never watched one single episode of Celebrity Apprentice, or regular Apprentice. No, I'm not one of those anti reality TV people, crying that they signify the downfall of modern civilization. I mean, you put Brett Michaels in a house (or bus) with a group of marginally attractive "ladies" and I'm popping popcorn in anticipation. I just never got on the Trump train way back when. So, you can take that into consideration when reading the rest of this.

However...

I do know my bottom of the rung celebrities, and it seems Trump has amassed some doozies for his latest show. My goodness. I assume he sent out his casting directors with explicit instructions to visit bus stations and Howard Johnsons to round out his crew. He might be breaking laws without using quotes around "celebrity" or at least throwing an asterisk next to it.

That isn't to say there aren't some intriguing characters on the show. In fact I think there are just enough to get me to at least think about watching the first episode, airing this Sunday night. Perhaps not the most glowing endorsement, but it's an endorsement nonetheless. And Trump has to be happy with that, right? Right?

On the flips side, a breakdown of the odds I give each "celebrity" to win this whole shebang...



Apologies for not including photos. For some of these people, I'm fairly sure you've never seen them before. To get a look, please visit the official Celebrity Apprentice site. Names are followed by what NBC describes them as being famous for. That in itself is full of humor...

Annie Duke
Poker champion
3-1

My personal odds on favorite to win. She showed some intelligence and moxie on (and I can't believe I A. saw this; B. remember this; and C. admit to this) 1 vs. 100. See for yourself:



As a poker player I think her competitiveness will really come out, more so than her "I just want some TV exposure." It's going to take her a long way and possibly give her what she needs to win the whole thing.

Andrew Dice Clay
Comedian
50-1

At some point he is going to mouth off (over under 6 minutes into the first meeting with Trump) which won't endear him to many people. Will Trump find it cute? Possibly the first 75 times it happens, but then that 76th time will come along and BAM - so long Diceman. Somewhere Nora Dunn is weeping laughing right now.

Brian McKnight
R & B Star
5-1

First of all, calling McKnight "star" without at the very least preceding it with "former" might be grounds for libel. Second of all, I think his lack of star appeal on the show will take him far. Far enough to win? Time will tell (and hopefully someone who watched this show, because I'm already having regrets telling you all I might watch the first episode).

Brande Roderick
Playboy Playmate
10-1

I can guarantee one thing - Ms. Roderick will not be eliminated in the first round. She could openly make out with Steve Wynn on Trump's Polar Bear rug (you know he has one) and she isn't getting eliminated. Why not? The 2 Bs. Blond and Bosomy.

Clint Black
country Star
5-1

When you look at the list and think about it, Clint Black might be the biggest star there. Sure, not to us snobby, hipster northeastern viewers, but to that ginormous middle part in the country we like to call Boring Part of the Flight Land, this guy is Elvis...or something. Trump knows this, wants Celebrity Apprentice to get huge ratings and therefore won't even entertain the notion of firing this guy before the semis. A safe bet.

Claudia Jordan
Model, Deal or No Deal
250-1

Being brunette isn't going to help her. Neither is the fact that her biggest gig seems to be opening a silver suitcase. She's eye candy so that might save her a few rounds, but unless we hear "Ivy league education" and her name in the first episode, Trump will quickly writer her off.

Dennis Rodman
NBA Star
1000-1

Rodman's stint can go one of two ways. He'll be kept around a couple rounds, ending up in the bottom fairly routinely to show off his "off the cuff" nature in the boardroom, until he's finally eliminated toward the end, or he'll storm off the show within 15 minutes. There's really no middle ground. Also, I'm assuming there's a boardroom and multiple people up for elimination that Trump ultimately decides on, but if that's not the case I apologize.

Hershel Walker
NFL Star
10-1

Sure, he has a multiple personality disorder, but any guy who ever played Russian Roulette, no matter what personality it is, is going to get some props in my book.

Jesse James
Entrepreneur/TV Star
9-1

He works on cars I think? He's listed as an entrepreneur so that has to count for something. Other than that, this guy is a wild card, and wild cards always seem to make some noise in irrelevant reality TV competitions, which is why I love this guy for a value bet. And if you don't know what a value bet is, well that just means you don't have a gambling problem. Consider yourself lucky.

Joan Rivers
Comedienne
150-1

Another one that will run her mouth. I really can't see Ms. Rivers willing to sully her (perceived) status and stoop to some of the lower levels she will have to to win some of the show's challenges.

Khloe Kardashian
Reality Star
15,000-1

There's something to be said about our society when someone is a big enough star to go on a reality show because she's been on previous reality shows. If I were the other contestants, I'd put a target on Khloe's back for degrading their already questionable celebrity status. I doubt she'll get any favors from them. And Trump? He's going to be mad that he could only get Khloe from the Kardashian Klan, and will more than likely hold it against her. First round exit? Don't bet against it.

Melissa Rivers
TV Host/Producer
6-1

Producer? I'm impressed! Melissa went a long way on that celebrity survival show in the jungle, so she has experience with advancing in reality TV competitions (I wonder if that's on her resume? - skilled in advancing on reality TV competitions). She also has something that no other contestant has - the desire to show up her mother. Don't sleep on the spite a daughter has to stick it to mom.

Natalie Gulbis
Golf Champion
8-1

This is the type of contestant that can sneak up on everyone. I'm 90% sure none of the other contestants know who she is (75% probably don't know the women have a professional golf tour), so no one is going to perceive her as a threat. Plus, I follow her on Twitter and she seems pretty smart.

Scott Hamilton
Figure Skating Champion
4-1

What's Scott Hamilton been doing for the past 25 years other than Olympic figure skating commentating? Pushing his agent to get him on a show like this. Add that to a competitive drive and a Napoleonic stature and you have the makings of a reality television celebrity. He wins this and he takes that title away from Khloe. Cat fight!

Tom Green
Comedian
1 google to 1

I opted for the largest number known to man for Mr. Green's odds because there is no way Trump let's the person responsible for this:



Win anything he's involved in. And there's no way Tom Green is going on this show to win anything from Donald Trump. They probably have some weird agreement already worked out behind the scenes already for Green to do something "Tom Greenish" on the third show so rump can get all theatrical and toss him off.

Tionne Watkins
R&B Star, TLC
8-1

Not Left Eye, not the other one, but the other one from TLC. Apparently she went by T-Boz. I'm guessing there will be such a general state of confusion as to which one she was in TLC, followed by false accusations of her burning down former Atlanta Falcon Andre Risen's house that she'll garner a lot of the sympathy/anonymity one needs to succeed on these shows.




18 comments:

Andrew said...

Roderick could be a sleeper because she looks like Ivanka, but that will probably hurt her in the end as there is only room for 1 hot blonde in the boardroom, and her last name is Trump.

Black is probably too nice, Rodman not into it enough, Walker too green to TV, Green too outrageous, Dice too honest.

I do like Gulbis a lot. She's got a show on TV, is big into business and marketing, and is certainly one of the least abrasive of this lot (Oscar the Grouch would be in the bottom half of this group).

Also like McKnight, i think he's been a producer or something, gotta be pretty smart.

Hamilton definitely will get some sympathy points, he's had cancer like 4 times i think, he articulate, very recognizable in public (unlike alot of these folks), and if his enthusiasm on TV translates onto this show, he's got a really good shot. The Pick.

The Popcorn Trick said...

Don't sleep on Duke. Did you not watch the 1 vs. 100 clip I provided?

She's also a great poker player, which skillset I believe can translate a bit in the business world.

Andrew said...

Duke is a legit contender, I'll grant you that, although answering 2 easy questions on 1 v. 100 doesn't mean that much. Few reasons why i wouldn't pick her:
1. Not sure of her leadership ability, or ability to work with others, her profession is about as individually based as any. 2. This isn't a quiz show, its more than just smarts, and I don't know how much real world biz experience she has. 3. No way i'm taking the favorite, whomever it is.

By the way, in gambling terms "odds-on" favorite would be one that is less than even money to win, in other words >50-50 chance. @ 3-1 i'd label her a lukewarm favorite.

The Popcorn Trick said...

I was using the label on her because I gave her the best odds, but understand what you're saying about "odds on" favorite.

The 1 vs. 100 clip was just part one of the entire ep. - you have to really dig in to appreciate her ability. Hamilton is definitely one to watch too though.

Cline said...

Wouldn't touch Duke at that #. She seemed uncomfortable being the focus of attention. Also I'm not sure she ever opened her mouth when she talked. I think she doesn't want deaf people to be able to read her lips. Why does she hate the deaf?

Hamilton's forehead could be used to display Powerpoint presentations, so that has to be a plus.

This Kardashian is the linebacker, right? Too bad they couldn't get the third one. She's cute.

I'll take Walker (from Georgia and can do a lot of situps/pushups), Gulbis, & McKnight as the final 3. Gulbis wins.

The Popcorn Trick said...

I might protest Walker's participation because he's got all those other people in his head to help him.

Make it interesting? I say Duke goes farther than Walker.

mndleftbod said...

I have also never watched it. I saw a commercial and was just amazed what passes as "celebrity" these days.

My GF was watching the karadshian show, I saw bruce jenner and realized he was once a great track star, probably my second favorite of the 3 track stars I can name. I asked her why these girls were famous to have show. She couldn't really tell me other than the fact they were socialites and their dad that was OJ's lawyer.

That is some serious stretching of the celebrity branch.

gdr said...

I'd box this superfecta...
Gulbis, Walker, Hamilton, Duke

I'd love to 'do' this superfecta...
J. Rivers, Gulbis, Hamilton, J. Rivers again

Cline said...

I would take that best, but how about we make it interestinger. We draft all 15 people (maybe we flip to see who has to take Tom Green), and you get a point every time one of your people is eliminated. Then maybe a bonus of -5 points for picking the winner and -2 points for picking people who make it to the final 2 or 3, but lose? The scoring system isn't as important as the fact that we could lay some very indirect ownership of this caravan of misfit souls.

Goose said...

Please, you know M. Rivers is finding a way into that superfecta. Both actually.

Goose said...

Please - I'll take whatever action you want. Fantasy draft for Celebrity Apprentice? No, that sounds too stupid. Of course.

I'll give you first pick since you won football challenge.

mndleftbod said...

Walker would have to first pick...he is playing the "awareness" card. He will take it more seriously and probably isn't taking it as another 15 minutes like the rest of them.

Cline said...

Let's take this to Twitter. Standard snake draft. I'll go first, then you pick 2, I pick 2, etc.

You cool with the scoring system I squirted out?

Maybe we live-twitter tonight's premiere?

You name the stakes.

Goose said...

Stakes TBD. We'll figure something out. I still owe anyway.

Points are fine. We might fine tune but whatever.

Twitter it is.

Cline said...

Results of the 2009 Celebrity Apprentice Fantasy Draft:

1. Cline - Gulbis
2. Goose - Duke
3. Goose - Hamilton
4. Cline - Walker
5. Cline - McKnight
6. Goose - James
7. Goose - Black
8. Cline - M. Rivers
9. Cline - Roderick
10. Goose - T-Boz
11. Goose - Jordan
12. Cline - J. Rivers
13. Cline - TOM GREEN (not a typo)
14. Goose - Duke
15. Goose - Dice
16. Cline - Rodman

Other than not being able to count up to 16, I was pretty happy. I don't know how many they'll eliminate tonight, but I'm guessing it's between Rodman, Dice, & Green.

We'll be live-twittering the show tonight, but will avoid spoilers.

You can follow Goose & myself by clicking on those links.

Goose said...

Gulbis is definitely one of the favorites, but I like Hamilton better so was glad to see he dropped to me at 2. Getting Duke at 3 was icing.

And I'm liking my Jesse James pick - because he's an entrepeneur like Trump so they'll hit it right off.

Wanted M. Rivers and Roderick, but it just wasn't in the cards. I feel I had a solid draft though.

Andrew said...

I'm torn, Cline has two of my top 3, McNight and Gulbis, but Goose has Gritty gutty scotty hamilton. Should be interesting, just starting up out her on the west coast.
Btw, the preview to the show is like 15 minutes, they show everything but who gets fired.

Goose said...

The show is difficult to watch. No business being 2 hours long. No business being an hour long probably.

Gulbis did not come out of the gate guns blazing. Not sure she's going to do much here. McKnight could just be hanging back right now, but his 'tude was a little weird.

As I said before - biggest upset of the night was Tom Green taking it all serious enough to try and win.