Friday, September 19, 2008

NFL Picks from The Popcorn Trick - Week 3

So, what did we learn from week 2 other than so far, I have given you no reason to seriously look at my picks?

We learned Kurt Warner is still awesome.
We learned St. Louis is awful.
We learned the Jets can't beat the Patriots.
We learned no matter what, I will never be able to truly handicap the Raiders. Seriously, the Raiders have been my nemesis since college. I'll never get a beat on them. Remember that.

Regardless, I went 6-8-1 last week. Not a Herculean effort on my part, and I make no excuses. But not to worry, I did the same amount of research for this week. Couple that with what we've learned in week 1, and I think I have a pretty good chance to right the ship.

Also, every week, I'm just trying to make a profit. I don't care about the overall season record. So assume that $100 is wagered on each game, with a 10% vig. That means I have to go 9-7 to come away with a profit. Last week of course I would have dropped $340, if you're keeping track. Right now, I hope you're not.

On the flip side, the picks for Week 3...


As always, picks are bold:

Kansas City +4 @ ATLANTA

Kansas City is bad. I'm just talking about the city at this point. You have the Chiefs and the Royals. If I lived there, I would move.

Oakland +7.5 @ BUFFALO

I'm still living off my beautiful upset pick of Buffalo last week. Hey, it was a small bright spot. I figure Buffalo seems to be able to beat the bad teams, and at home they're going to want to do it with style. But remember, I have no idea how to pick a Raiders game.

Tampa Bay +3 @ CHICAGO

3 points at home seems easy to cover. Still not sold on Tampa Bay. Of course, that means I am technically sold on Kyle Orton as QB. And it looks like he has trouble just growing a beard, so betting on him seems a bit risky. But I'll stick with it.

CAROLINA PK @ Minnesota

I calling it now - Carolina makes the playoffs. Though I'm not supremely confident they go into Minnesota and win, I do like them for the whole season. Plus, Minnesota is in all kinds of weirdness right now. With Ferrotte leading them now, and Adrian Peterson doing his best Mr. Glass impression, I'll take Carolina here.

MIAMI +10.5 @ New England

Yes, they stink. Yes, they go smoked by Arizona last week. But let's for a minute pretend that last week's game was a result of them looking ahead to a division rival game? Now the pick doesn't look so stupid. It's still stupid, just not AS stupid.

Cincinnati +10.5 at NY GIANTS

Ok, the Bengals are terrible. The number's high, but the Bengals are terrible. Marvin Lewis fired after this week?

Houston +4.5 at TENNESSEE

I waffled a bit here. The Titans are the better team, but Houston has had more time off (due to Hurricane Ike). Still, I'm going with the home team here.

Arizona +1 @ WASHINGTON

As any of my friends will attest, I'm a huge Warner fan. I even have a Warner Iowa Barnstomers jersey. So I love to see this resurgence of his. However, doing it at home against the Dolphins isn't the same as doing it against the Redskins.

DETROIT +2.5 @ San Fran

Detroit put some points up last week, right? And San Fran is still coming off the high of beating the Seahawks. That's at least something.

St. Louis +6 @ SEATTLE

Steve Largent is probably waiting for his phone to ring to suit up at receiver for the Seahawks - and the Seahawks would be stupid not to at least consider it. Well, they can at least wait another week to make that decision as they won't need Largent to beat St. Louis.

New Orleans +6.5 @ DENVER

I heard Hoculi is reffing this game.

Pittsburgh PK @ PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles offense seems to be clicking. Sure the Steelers look good too, and will probably run a lot more since Ben's shoulder is sketchy at best right now. Take the Eagles at home to win the battle of the keystone state, and get ready to listen to Pittsburgh fans curse themselves for not voting enough times to get Lynn Swan into office.

JACKSONVILLE +4 @ Indianapolis

Jaguars have Indy's number. They always play them tough. And Indy doesn't seem like the Indy of old anyway.

CLEVELAND -1 @ Baltimore

My "what the fuck game" on the schedule.

Dallas +1.5 @ GREEN BAY

Dallas and Philly really got jobbed early on the season schedule wise. This is a tough game. I don't see Romo being able to deal here and give the Packers a squeaker win.

NY Jets +6 @ SAN DIEGO

Speaking of tough schedules, the Jets can't be thrilled with theirs right now. Though they might not have to face LT. Unfortunately, I don't think that will matter.

13 comments:

Cline said...

DISCLAIMER: I am terrible at picking games. I've never made it past Week 1 of any Survivor Pool I've entered, and thus I don't enter them anymore.

But since this is imaginary money, here are my picks for Week 3 in the league where they play... FOR PAY!:

kansas city +4 @ atlanta – ATLANTA. I just don’t trust Yancy Thigpen as QB.

oakland +7.5 @ buffalo – BUFFALO. Is Kiffin still the coach?

tampa bay +3 @ Chicago – CHICAGO. What did Garcia do to piss off Gruden?

carolina pk @ Minnesota – VIKINGS. Add some extra padding to the walls surrounding the end zone.

miami +10.5 @ new England – NEW ENGLAND. Belicheck starts opening things up a bit.

cincinnati +10.5 at ny giants – CINCINNATI. This is dumb, but the Bengals have too much talent to continue sucking this hard. Right?

houston +4.5 at Tennessee – TENNESSEE. Add some extra padding to Young’s locker room stall

arizona +1 @ Washington – WASHINGTON. Zona may be better this year, but not on the road against a decent team.

detroit +2.5 @ san fran – SAN FRAN. Yeesh.

st. louis +6 @ seattle – SEATTLE. You know you’re in trouble when you’re giving single digits at home to the Rams.

new orleans +6.5 @ Denver – NEW ORLEANS. This will be a shootout that Denver wins late.

pittsburgh pk @ Philadelphia – PITTSBURGH. Hope I’m wrong. I can see Pittsburgh putting up a bunch of points.

jacksonville +4 @ Indianapolis – JACKSONVILLE. Indy’s banged up and Jax have played them hard recently.

cleveland -1 @ Baltimore – BALTIMORE. Cleveland’s going to turn it around, but not this week.

dallas +1.5 @ green bay – GREEN BAY. Short week, let-down game, Aaron Rodgers just having fun out there.

ny jets +6 @ san diego – SAN DIEGO. Favre throws at least 3 picks.

Goose said...

You know, you could have just added to the post you idiot.

Cline said...

1. It was your post. Other than the occasional typo correction, I would sooner bang your dog than edit your post. There are lines that shan't be crossed.

2. This in no indicates my objection to the designation of my cognitive abilities as breaching the idiot level.

Goose said...

It wouldn't be editing, it would be adding, and I don't think it would have been terrible. And the contraction "shan't" is made up of "shouldn't" and "can't," which isn't true, since while shouldn't, you can abide by, "can't" isn't true. You have the means to edit posts here.

And yes, it is a made up word.

hendge said...

What we really learned from last week is that your readers should be listening to me since I was 2-0 with my sure things.

Now, can a brother get some Ryder Cup picks up in here? How about Davis Cup? Sam Querrey anyone?

Goose said...

2-0? My dog went 2-0.

Ryder Cup - No one's beating a Faldo led team.

Davis Cup - You're not beating Nadal in Spain. You're not beating Spain in Spain.

hendge said...

Hey, I'm trying to be selective and give your readers the best bets. They're better off splitting their bankroll across two sure things than spreading it out over 15 games. I'm the new Brandon Lang.

Did you read any of ESPN.com's recent Outside The Lines stuff on tennis betting in the wake of the whole Daveydenko thing? Apparently tennis is huge in betting circles worldwide these days -- and the ATP has been very slow to react to what amounts to tons of suspicious betting patterns. I really need an inside man on the tour.

Goose said...

I hear a lot of 2-0 from last week, see nothing since then...

Haven't seen the tennis stuff, but I had that same thought when it first cam up about a year or so ago. Apparently tennis is the most widely bet on sport in the world?

hendge said...

These are both really interesting, if a little long:

On the Daveydenko match itself:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3235411

About a guy who basically got "inside" the tour, befriended all the players, got inside info, and bet heavily. Good stuff:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3238613

Drew said...

When is hendge posting best bets?

Cline said...

By my calculations, I went 11-5 (+$440 for the week and overall).

Goose went 9-7 (+$40 for the week, -$300 overall).

Cline said...

Also, "shan't" = "shall not", so it was used correctly.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/shan%27t

Goose said...

thanks Shakespeare.